Poll says: If blacks vote, Bush loses

October 28, 2004

The GOP is blatantly attempting to suppress the minority vote in Florida and other battleground states. Their strategy seems to boil down to gumming up the works on election day in minority precincts – slowing the process to a crawl so that less people are willing or able to vote.

Blatant cheating implies desperation, which is confirmed by a new Republican poll.

.Hmmm. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.

As Fabrizio blandly puts it, “It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign.” More accurately, if Fabrizio is right that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.

Original press release (pdf) is here.

What this poll is saying is that if minorities turn out in the same percentages (or greater) than they did in 2000, there is no way that Bush can win. It wont even be close – unless the GOP can cheat their way past a 5 point margin of victory.

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